11/27/18 was down -0.86 and the model projects the component on yesterday's kill will drop between -0.35 and -0.65. The ZZZs are trading premium to the component by +1.22. That is not much of a "Gap" but the CME Index is in a down-trend as is the Purchase Index and cutouts have dropped thirteen points since the middle of October. That is enough to put me on the short side of the ZZZs even though the ASF virus could push world pork production way down.
Yesterday packers purchased 87.2% of the moving average daily purchases of total hogs and 102.5% on Index hogs. The weather may be making it a bit difficult for some producers to ship hogs but the kill rate is holding up quite well.