10/12/18 was up +0.13 and the model projects the component on Friday's kill will change in the range of +0.15 to -0.15 meaning it will be essentially unchanged. The ZZZs are trading discount to the component by -11.35. The ZZZs are showing a lot of strength this morning suggesting that "The Market" is coming to the realization that the ZZZs were taken too low and will now move a bit higher. I have been trading the long Z/G spread and it has treated me well but I came through the weekend flat the spread.

Packers purchased quite large numbers of hogs Friday at 123.% of the daily moving average purchases of total hogs and 119.1% on the index hogs.

Last week I piled a few summer futures onto my boat but didn't over load it. The strong summer market may let me unload some of them this week. It is looking more and more like the low of 45.30 posted by the Index on 9/1/18 was both a Hog Cycle low as well as the Seasonality low. I will continue to HODL some summer futures and buy more on dips and sell rallies.

Why?

Because it is working and the uncertainty of the impact that the ASF virus may have on the Chinese hog herd.

Best wishes,

dhm