10/11/18 was down -0.48 to 68.75. The VVVs are trading discount to the component by -0.18. With the cutouts weak yesterday and the index now in a down trend, I will take a handful of VVVs to cash settlement. I'm not expecting much but it appears to me that the risk is modest. Besides, I like to match wits with "The Market" as we go to cash settlement.

The six-day moving average carcass weight firmed to 210.45. That is -0.27# year/year. Index hogs were up quite a bit at 210.11#. Hogs may be finishing a bit faster now. Packer hogs are +0.87# heavier than the non-packer hogs.

I am still long the summer futures and continue to buy dips and sell rallies. i am also buying dips and selling rallies in the Z/G spreads. The long Z/G spreads have treated me well this fall.

Best wishes,

dhm