10/9/18 was down -0.02 to 69.33. The VVVs are trading discount to the component by -0.65. There are three more data days to get to cash settlement. The data is not giving me a very clear indication of where the index is headed until we go to cash settlement.

So - - -

I got a chance to take some small profits on some short VVVs and took it.

The six-day moving average carcass weight firmed to 210.25#. That is -0.16# year over year. Index hogs were also a bit heavier at 209.45#. Packer hogs are also heavier than the non-packer hogs by +1.40#. Packers are continuing to hurry their hogs to market. I am taking this as an indicator that the Index is going to be heading lower. Will it happen in time to get me out of the rest of the short VVVs? Dunno!

The Z/G spreads have been treating me very well. Today I was able to get the decks cleared of the long Z/G spreads and am ready to load again on another dip. Have piled a few summer futures on today as they dipped.

Best wishes,

dhm