IMHO the problem in the hogs is the distribution of the OI, if you look closely quite all the volume in in Z hogs, and this makes hard to read the medium term structure.
Z hogs as you said, are under pressure, but is also because of all the OI in Z, short covered same in Z but Long did not add to it (If you look to the COT) also producers increase their shorts, and of course In my opinion in Z... I think also same in G but less _(looking at ZG).
So hard to read the tape in hogs, but this OI distribution let us take advantage in spreads.

China, yes I think this will spread and a lot... but China will not give you any data until they has no hogs to kill.. and thay we will se the market limit every day...

Interesting Spread or Fly, MNQ at -2 is not a Bad idea (it is not a recommendation, is just an idea)

Greg