10/2/18 was up 0.53 to 69.10. The VVVs are now trading discount to the component by -2.07. The surging index seems to be pushing the VVVs higher now. I thought that might happen so I have stayed long the VVVs. It is nice to have the model as a trading tool as we move close to cash settlement.

The six-day moving average carcass weight moved up to 209.71#. That is -0.74# yr/yr. Packer hogs are heavier than the non-packer hogs by +1.65#. During the past six-days packer hogs have made up 35.08% of the kill but for the last 200-days it has only been 33.97%. Packers are really shipping a lot of their hogs this week. I think it may be partially because they are having a difficult time finding hogs to purchase. If that is the case, the Index may stay firm until the VVVs expire.

I bought a couple of summer futures this morning and had orders for more if they dipped a bit further. I may have made a mistake by not buying more but the last several weeks have gone well for me and there is little reason for me to get greedy.

Best wishes,

dhm