9/25/18 was up +1.11 and the model projects that component on yesterday's kill will move up between +1.15 and +1.45. The VVVs are trading discount to the component by -0.48. I decided to buy another of the VVVs when they dipped this morning. I think there is a good chance we will see a little rally when the 11:00 am report comes out showing the component made a move up of more than a point.

With their higher bids packers purchased 95.8% of the moving average daily purchases of total hogs and 102.5% on the index hogs. I continue to think that the producers of Index hogs are quite current in their shipments because their carcass weights are trailing the overall six-day moving average carcass weights. It may be a while before we know the full impact of Florence on the hog inventory. We know it took out a bunch of hogs and we had a couple of weeks of low-kill. Friday's report may tell us something.

The summer futures are trying to dip a little. Not to see if I am going to be able to reload some QQQs.

Best wishes,

dhm