9/17/18 was up +0.97 to 55.18. The VVVs are trading premium to the component by +4.05. It continues to appear that we hit the "Trough" in the Hog Cycle and there does not appear that we are headed for much of a liquidation phase this time around. Looking at the weakness of the kill rate, is it possible that there was some liquidation of the piglets earlier this year when everyone was worried about a fall wash out? Do producers of feeder pigs sometime destroy them for a lack of a market? Just don't know. The H&P report later this month should give us some guidance.

The six-day moving average carcass weight eased to 208.75#. That is -1.86# yr/yr. Producers seem to be very current in their shipments. Index hogs are lighter at 207.22#. Packer hogs are heavier than the non-packer hogs by +1.92#. Some of the jump is probably due to the challenge Smithfield had with Florence.

Still long the summer futures.

Best wishes,

dhm