9/7/18 was up somewhat more than the model projected at +0.99 to 47.36. The VVVs are now trading premium to the VVVs by +9.24. The CME Lean Hog Index is heading up quite strongly according to the futures market.

The 6-day moving average carcass weight firmed to 209.25#. That is -1.89# yr/yr. It appears that producers are quite current in their shipments. Packers are continuing to ship a larger percentage of the kill than they did last year. Packer hogs were 3/4# heavier today and packer hogs are now +0.14# heavier than the non-packer hogs. These numbers may be worth watching and it may indicate that packers have expanded their production.

I had orders working to buy more summer futures but the dip was not quite severe enough to get me on. My boat is really riding a bit high in the water but I have enough to satisfy me if the summer futures continue to rally as I anticipate. And even if they don't climb further, it has been a very nice ride so far. I don't think much of a slump is on the horizon for the summer futures but I suppose the "Trough" for this Hog Cycle could just be being kicked down the road to next summer and the real blood bath will occur then. My bias is that more likely scenario is that the trade war get fixed and China becomes a significant market for U.S. pork and maybe even North Korea if Kim is really deciding to put his emphasis on economic growth and improving the standard of living fo his people.

Best wishes,

dhm