final Purchase Index will be late today. Based on the surge in the component that we received yesterday on Tuesday's kill, I'm expecting the Purchase Index to be up a fair amount.

Even though the CME Lean Hog Index seems to have bottomed out and is now headed higher, I'm not convinced that this is the "Trough" for this Hog Cycle but it could very well be the Seasonality low.

Here is the problem:

It does not appear to me that there has been a significant contraction in production. However contraction in production may not be necessary if the ASF virus spreads and export demand steps up and carries off all the pork producers can produce. That could put us in the chase for the next "Crest" for the Hog Cycle. And so we wait and watch as this riddle unravels for us.

Best wishes,

dhm