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Re: DH, the swine flu situation----

has all the bulls chomping at the bit and dreaming about their Bank Account growth they will be blessed with. Regardless of how this plays out, potential problems in China will once again keep producers from cutting back on production significantly. Which in turn will Kick the Can for a financial bloodbath, down the road for a later date.

Even with a good story, that proves to be correct in due time------bottom pickers usually get beat to a pulp and give up before the Launch happens----that's my experience from 20 years of bottom picking attempts. What I've seen to be a consistent addiction in most markets and the hog market is a pro with this trick to torment bottom pickers into defeated and worn out traders with no cash left to catch the LAUNCH. The consistent addiction when a market is ready to go UP------is to get the bottom pickers into a strong convicted bias with excessive positions during sideways trade and then throw the Wash Out Gut Punch to take it down hard as it Picks their Pockets one last time.

This forces them to either give up on their dreams of Easy Wealth or they quickly jump over to the obvious Bear Camp to find themselves in a worse situation as they soon realize that the Bear Camp is actually POW camp set up by the Bulls. Believe me----I've been captured several times until I learned to keep my Damage Control card with me at all times.

Maybe times have changed and if so I will be ready to play my Damage Control Card. I should probably call it my Survival Card. Anyway, I'm still expecting that final Wash Out and also have my aggressive hedgers back to 75% of Oct production when it hit 55.00 last week and today I had my hedgers waiting with orders at 55.00 on Dec production for 25% for guys that are passive hedgers and 50% for my aggressive hedgers. I'm not overly confident about the Dec hedges so they will have stops @ 56.25 just in case I'm having one of my Hallucinations.

My guys with Oct hedges have an average just above 58.00, so their stops are set at break even to take the sidelines. Back in January when we were making plans for the expected seasonal selloff to put together hedging plans and targets, I told them if the record production remained in play, the downside target was a minimal 45.00 target area for Oct hogs between Sept 1st and Oct 1st. If nothing changed Dec hogs could dip below 40.00 if we had a late seasonal cycle low in late Oct or early Nov. The record production and Trade War Games keeps those targets on the table of play-------but now the confusion tactics are also on the playing field to ramp up the volatility and the stakes with the Swine Flu issues. Nothing like a good story to ramp up the confusion and the stakes as the Sharks are now multiplying as they line up for rounds of Picking Traders Pockets.

This all makes for Darn Good Fishing Weather------Oh what FUN!

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Re: DH, the swine flu situation----
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