8/31/18 was UP +0.42 and the model projects the component on Friday's kill will change in the range range of +0.20 to -0.10. it looks to me like we are just about to hit the "Trough" for this hog cycle. It is yet to be seen how severe the liquidation phase of this Hog Cycle will be. If there is a disease epidemic spreading in the Far East and the trade war comes to an end, demand could explode to the point that NO LIQUIDATION would take place.

And so we wait and watch.

If this this is the "Trough" I expect the summer futures to find support because the seasonality factor is still alive and well.

Packers purchased 122.6% of the moving average of total hogs and 114.6% on the index hogs. This is about what one would expect in the face of a holiday.

Still long the MMMs, NNNs and QQQs. I added a couple more MMMs on Friday.

Best wishes,

dhm