8/23/18 was down -0.58 to 48.64 and that represents a new low for this Hog Cycle as well as a seasonality low for this fall. Packers have an inventory of less expensive hogs purchased so we will most likely see this down trend continue for at least the next two days. Traders are thinking the "Trough" may be just around the corner and have bid the VVVs up until they are now premium to the component by +3.31.

Perhaps they are right -

But on the other hand,

They may be wrong.

It is going to take firm demand to carry off all the pork.

The six-day moving average carcass weight weight firmed to 208.17#. That is only +0.04# over last year so packers are processing hogs as fast as they are finishing. It would not be a good idea to see hogs backed up this time of the year. Packers continue their aggressive marketing of their hogs. Their hogs are now -0.83# lighter than the non-packer hogs.

The dip in the summer futures I was wanting never happened today so I continue to HODL the ones that I hare now on my trading boat. If the Index continues to weaken, there could still be some weakness develop in the summer futures.

Best wises,

dhm