8/22/18 was down -0.56 to 49.22. As expected we have another low for this Hog Cycle but nothing to suggest that we are at the cycle "Low". "The Market" is still telling us that the low for this Hog Cycle will be posted before the VVVs go to cash settlement. With the VVVs trading at a puny premium of +2.80 to the component, there could easily surface a change in sentiment and cause the VVVs to dip below the component. My point is that the futures may not be a very good indicator of where the low for this Hog Cycle will be.

The rate at which packers are processing hogs and the fact that the weights are heavier than one year ago, makes me cautious about trying to spot the low for this Hog Cycle.

The six-day moving average carcass weight firmed to 208.09#. That is +0.21# yr/yr. Packer hogs are now -0.84# lighter than non-packer hogs. The percentage of packer hogs in the kill-mix is moving up again and fact that packer hogs are lighter than non-packer hogs makes me think that packers are keeping a bit more current in their shipments than the non packer producers. Index hogs are a bit heavier still at 208.41#.

If packers are being a bit more aggressive in shipping their hogs, is it because they think prices are headed lower? They surely not running them to market to meet strong demand!

I am still HODLing the summer futures. I should be buying dips and selling rallies but am not doing very well spotting dips and rallies.

Best wishes,

dhm