8/22/18 was down -0.19 and the model projects the component on yesterday's kill will drop between -0.50 and -0.80. This will give us a new low for this Hog Cycle but there is nothing yet to suggest that this will be the "Trough" even though both the VVVs and ZZZs are trading above the Index.

So -

"The Market" is saying we will hit the "Trough" before the VVVs go to cash settlement.

Very often "The Market" is wrong.

When there is a surplus of pork, the bottom of the Hog Cycle often comes in December. The seasonality low may occur anywhere between September and January and it occurs every year whereas the Hog Cycle run from three to seven years.

Best wishes,

dhm