8/21/18 was down -0.47 to 49.78 and that was not as much as the model projected but it was close. It is not easy to project which batch of hogs packers will choose to process on a given day. Day in and day out the model does a credible job with its projections.

The VVVs are now trading premium to the component by +4.47. "The Market" seems to waking up to the fact that th two-day limit up moves were a mistake that should never have happened.

The 6-day moving average carcass weight was steady at 207.83#. That is +0.27# year over year. Producers seem to be getting quite current in their shipments. Packers have really got current. Packer hogs are now running -0.86# lighter than non-packer hogs and yesterday packer hogs got lighter and non-packer hogs were a bit heavier.

When the summer futures were down a point and a half, I had itchy fingers to pull the trigger but controlled the urge since we are still in the chase for the "Trough". There is still the possibility this could get ugly as we search for the "Trough" to this Hog Cycle.

The high kill rate lately and the carcass weights drifting toward last year's level makes me think producers are moving hogs out quite quickly but oft times the real surge in the kill comes in late November or early December. So I will wait and watch for a lower price level for the summer futures.

Best wishes,

dhm