8/20/18 was down-0.78 to 50.25. That is a new low for this Hog Cycle but it may not be the "Trough" for the CME Lean Hog Index. The VVVs are now trading premium to the component by +6.25. "The Market" now thinks we will hit the "Trough" before the VVVs expire.

The 6-day moving average carcass weight eased to 207.88#. That is +0.50 heavier than this date last year. Index hogs are a bit heavier at 208.29#. Packer have become current in their shipments and index hogs may be falling behind a tiny bit. AT this point in time, it appears that export demand is going to be needed to help prices and that could happen if the tariff problem gets solved and the spread of the African Swine Fever virus spreads in China.

And so I wait and watch and HODL the summer futures. I would like to have more but the price level where they are currently trading has me sidelined for further purchases..

Best wishes,

dhm