8/8/18 was down -1.75 to 61.03. The QQQs are now trading discount to the component by -6.18. The model shows that it takes an average daily drop of -1.77 to close that "Gap".

The six-day moving average carcass weight firmed to 208.60#. That is +1.60# yr/yr. Index hogs were also heavier at 208.73#. Hogs should not be getting heavier this time of the year. Is it possible that hogs are being backed up? This not the looking good for producers. Packer hogs are lighter than non-packer hogs by -0.23# but packer hogs were a bit heavier yesterday by about 1/2#. Packers knew when it was time to be shipping hogs.

So far the CME Lean Hog Index low for this Hog Cycle has been 52.97 set on 4/11/18. The market is now saying that it will be taken out sometime between October and February in the mid-forties. I am not questioning the market's judgement on that matter but I am questioning the market's judgement on beating the summer futures down as much as it has. So I am accumulating some MMMs, NNNs and QQQs. Today I took occasion to dump some of them and put some money in the bank but I still have six that I will be HODLing looking for ten points. So far this "Post-Trough" trade is working well.

I hope I am not wrong in thinking the "Trough" will be hit before the MMMs go to cash settlement.

Best wishes,

dhm