8/6/18 was, as expected, down -1.60 to 63.67. The QQQs are now trading discount to the component by -7.29. The model shows that the component will need to drop -1.32 each day from now until cash settlement to close that "Gap". That seems to be just about what is happening.

The 6-day moving average carcass weight eased slightly to 208.35#. That is +1.48# yr/yr. Index hogs were steady at 208.59#. Packer hogs were -0.39 lighter than non-packer hogs. The weights were suggesting that the carcass weights were going up. Perhaps that was a temporary blip from the plant closing a week or so ago. The data continues to suggest that we are looking for the "Trough" in the Index for this Hog Cycle. That being the case, I will continue to wait for a dip before reloading my boat with more summer futures. I will HODL what I have because there may not be much of a dip to the summer futures. I am expecting the summer futures to move up ten points or so by the time we hit the crest of the seasonality cycle next summer.

Best wishes,

dhm