8/6/18 was down -1.53 and the model projects that the component on the kill yesterday will drop between -1.30 and -1.60. The model calculates that it will take a daily drop of -1.18 to close the "Gap". Over the past 10-days it has dropped an average of -1.12 per day but the last three days the decline has averaged -1.46. It appears that packers are becoming more aggressive in their price cutting. What's more, it appears that hogs may being backed-up a little. I say that because of the firming carcass weights. If that is the case, we may see the index drop enough to cause the QQQs to dip a bit more.

I did not trade this fall drop very well but I may be on track to be on the right side of the market after we find the "Trough" to this Hog Cycle. I am now in the search to find some more June, July and August futures to re-load my boat a little.

Best wishes,

dhm