8/3/18 was down -1.69 to 65.27. The QQQs are now trading discount to the component by -7.77. The market is still searching for the "Trough" for this hog cycle and it says the Index is not very close to it yet. The drop on Friday's kill obviously gets us closer.

The six-day moving average carcass weight firmed to 208.55#. That is +1.40# year/year. Packers don't seem to be killing enough hogs to keep producers current in their shipments but hogs are backing up a little. With pork being plentiful, backing up hogs is NOT going to be good for producers. Index hogs were also heavier at 208.80#. Packer hogs are now lighter than the non+packer hogs by -0.42#. Over the past 200-days the percentage of packer hogs in the kill mix has been 33.85% but for the past six-days that percentage has dropped to 32.12%. These numbers suggest that packers have been emptying out their barns and letting the non-packer hogs back up. Not a pretty picture for producers!!

It does not look like the market is going to let me re-load any summer futures today. I will be patient. There will most likely be a dip between now and New Years Day.

BEst wishes,

dhm