out, ITZ, and I will only do it when we are in the chase for the "Trough" for the Hog Cycle. That means it will most likely be four to seven years before I will be building a portfolio that far out again. I have two exempt pools that I manage and I want to get three long June, July and August futures in each pool so each pool will potentially be long nine futures. But I won't just buy and hold. I was a little more than half way to my targeted portfolio size when they bounced on Friday so I sold some and put some money in the bank. Now I am waiting for a dip to re-load my boat and continue building my portfolio. I will HODL (Hold on for dear life and it's pronounced "Hodel and it rhymes with yodel ) what I now have until I get a dip to re-load.

If finding the "Trough" gets really ugly, I think the summer futures could dip ten points. I bought the MMMs down seven points from where they were on 6/8/18 so another ten-point drop would not surprise me. Now I am not predicting that will happen; if I thought it would, I would be selling rather than buying. Just being aggressively cautious, that's all!

Today I spent some time reviewing the data looking at the summer months' behavior following the posting of the seasonality low in the fall. I only have eight years of data so there would have been 24 possible trades looking at the June, July and August contracts. Eighteen of the trades would have been profitable and six would have been losers. That is not trade-able because nobody rings the bell when the seasonal low is hit.

This year is far different, though, because we are not only looking for the Hog Cycle low, but we are looking for the seasonality low at the same time. The combination of the chase being on for both the seasonal cycle low as well as the Hog Cycle low gives me the confidence to buy some summer futures then sell rallies and buy dips as we continue to chase the "Trough" for both cycles.

So far the strategy is treating me mighty fine and there is still twelve-months for me to work the strategy.

Now I am going to go dream about the trade.

Best wishes,

dhm