10-29-14 was down -1.78 to 92.12. That was a mildly bigger dip than the model projected but not by much.

As has been the case for sometime, each time the component shows some weakness, the ZZZs take a dip thus the gap tends to be persistent but slowly closing. It now stands at 3.04.

The carcass weight on the negotiated index hogs fell to 190.58. It appears that these producers are loading their pickups and heading to market in a hurry. I think they are the marginal producers and if packers rely much on them to round out their kill, they may have to start bidding higher to get those hogs since they may be headed to short supply.

The six-day moving average carcass weight moved up to 215.58# and the lion's share of that gain came from packer hogs. Packer hogs are accounting for about 31.1% of the kill. It usually runs about 32.5%. Perhaps packers have empty pens and are keeping their hogs to heavier weight to get the extra poundage.

For sometime I have been expecting the Z/G spread to close to ZERO and this morning it has essentially done just that. I doubt that ZERO represents a bottom for the spread. On average over the past eleven years it has gone off the board at -3.2 and only once was it above ZERO. I'm in no hurry to cover those shorts.

I did cover a short ZZZ future thinking I could scalp be in.

Wrong!!

At least so far.

Best wishes,

Doc