7/31/18 was down -0.67 to 69.65. I get the impression from the component not being down as much as projected that perhaps the packers are accumulating an inventory of hogs they have purchased at lower prices and we may see a larger dip in the component over the next few days. The QQQs are now trading discount to the component by -9.07.

The six-day moving average carcass weight firmed to 207.51. That is +0.76# yr/yr. It appears hogs backed up a little last week. Index hogs were a bit lighter at 207.70#. Packer hogs are lighter than non-packer hogs by -0.17#. Packers have done an outstanding job getting current in their shipments. Over thelast 200-days packer hogs have made up 33.88% of the kill but for the last 6-days packer hogs have only been 31.74% of the kill.

Still trying to accumulate summer futures but am a bit cautious since I have no knowledge of when the "Trough" will be hit for this hog cycle. "The Market" says it will be between when the VVVs expire and when the GGGs. At that point there is a fairly good chance that the low for the summer futures will be hit.

Best

dhm