7/31/18 was down -1.47 again today and the model projects the component on yesterday's kill will drop between -0.95 and -1.25. Yesterday the component dropped -1.00 to 70.32. The QQQs are now trading discount to the component by -10.19. Packers are getting on with getting their cost of pork in line with the price at which they are able to peddle it. Yesterday packers purchased 109.6% of the moving average daily purchases of total hogs and 113.0% of the index hogs.

I am still accumulating long summer futures. Cycle theory holds that: "Producers will always expect existing product prices to continue indefinitely into the future."

On that basis, then, I think the summer month futures will get beaten down too low and when the summer seasonality hits, they will rally. So I am watching for the "Trough" in this cycle and gradually building an inventory of summer futures. I'm not very good at picking the cycle low so I will be content to gradually build my summer portfolio and just as I don't know when the "Trough" will be hit, I don't know when the summer seasonality high will show up so I am building in the MMMs, NNNs and QQQs. My portfolio is now large enough that I can begin selling rallies and buying more on a dip.

Best wishes,

dhm