7/27/18 was down -0.28 and the model projects that the component on Friday's kill will drop between -0.55 and -0.85. The QQQs are trading discount to the component by -9.21. The model shows that the component will need to drop an -0.73 per day close that "Gap".

On Friday packers purchased 103.6% of the daily moving average of purchases of total hogs and 97.7% on the index hogs. Those are a bit higher numbers than we have been seeing.

The futures seem to be telling us that we are still searching for the "Trough" for this hog cycle. The futures are saying it will be hit between the expiration of the VVVs and the GGGs. I I continue to think that the summer futures will be pushed too low and when the summer seasonality hits the MMMs, NNNs and QQQs expire quite a bit higher than they will be when the "Trough" is hit so I am trying to build a portfolio of them by buying dips. Once I get my portfolio sized, I will sell rallies and buy dips. I am sill accumulating.

Best wishes,

dhm