7/12/18 was down -0.51 and the model projects that the component on yesterday's kill will drop between -0.30 and -0.60. The model calculates that it will take an average decline of -0.47 per day for the next three days to close the "Gap". That seems to be just about the trajectory we are on making the NNNs just about appropriately priced at this point in time. Yesterday the producers of negotiated hogs were the packers "Whipping Boys" and whip they did! Perhaps that is an early sign of things to come. The number of negotiated hogs purchased was rather small. I think this means that packers were being shown more hogs than they wanted.

If that is the case, it is NOT a good sign for the producers.

Yesterday packers purchased 85.6% of the moving average of total hogs and 90.5% on the index hogs.

I am short one of the NNNs and I may take it to cash settlement just because I almost always have something to go to cash settlement but I don't expect much from it.

Best wishes,

dhm