6/26/18 was down 0.92 and the model projects that the component on yesterday's kill will be down between -0.30 and -0.60. A down trend seems to have been set now that the Independence Day holiday demand has been met by the packers. The NNNs are now trading discount to the component by -5.85.

Packers purchased 105.1% of the moving average of total hogs and 106.% on the index hogs. Producers seem to be willing sellers but packers are mildly reluctant buyers and only at prices that are a bit lower. Packer hogs continue to make up a higher than usual percentage of the kill. Over the past six days packer hogs have been 36.33% compared to 33.17% for the past 200-days.

Packer hogs are also heavier by +1.01#.

There are some analysts who are projecting that the H&P report tomorrow will show continued expansion by hog producers. A trade war with China could upset some expansion plans.

I'm very mildly bearish the NNNs.

Best wishes,

dhm