From the afternoon reports the model projects that the CME Index component on the 10/28/14 kill will drop another buck and a half or so. That will close the "Gap" between the CME Component and the ZZZs to something like 3.66. That can go away in one-day.

There is a good chance that producers are soing some liquidation of their inventory of heavies. I'm wondering if there are enough lighter weight hogs coming along behind them to keep the kill rate up or will this period a firm kill rate and falling hog prices be quickly followed by dwindling kill numbers and an up-turn in prices?

My bias is that producers have ample supplies of lighter weight hogs coming along and the usual fall decline in hog prices will be seen this year.

But I don't dare going wildly short the ZZZs.

Stay tuned for the exciting saga of the PED virus induced volatile hog market.

Best wishes,

dhm