6/18/18 was DOWN -0.17 and the model projects that the component on yesterday's kill will be up between +0.40 and +0.70. The numbers suggest that packers still have some more expensive hogs to process.

Packers purchased 86.3% of the moving average daily purchases of total hogs and 86.8% on the index hogs. My read on these numbers is that packers have now purchased hogs to meet the holiday demand surge and the price will likely slip for a while now. I sold the NNNs I bought yesterday as well as a couple of calls.

The NNNs are now trading discount to the component by -1.83. It appears that I am not the only one thinking the numbers are saying hogs are headed lower.

Best wishes,

dhm