6/15/18 was up 1.23 to 83.48. The NNNs are trading discount to th e component by -0.21. My assessment is that traders are thinking packers are being pushed to buy hogs to meet the Independence Day holiday demand surge then they expect the hog prices to become stable or possibly retract mildly. On average over the past 11-years from this date until the NNNs go to cash settlement, the index gained 2.08. The most it gained was 17.88 in 2014 and in 2007 it lost -4.84. There is a good chance that significant amounts of money will change hands in the coming weeks. I will try to keep a firm grasp on my money but there is no guarantee that I will be successful.

The six-day moving average carcass weight eased to 209.87#. That is +1.27# yr/yr. Packer hogs are +2.17# heavier than non-packer hogs. Packer hogs were a bit heavier and non-packer hogs dropped about 1/2#. With the hot weather, I think we can expect carcass weights to decline. Index hogs were down a little at 209.87#. During the latter part of April Index hogs were running above 214.0#.

If demand does not crumble, we will likely see the rising index push the NNNs higher.

Best wishes,

dhm