6/7/18 was up 1.16 to 75.14. The MMMs are trading premium to the component by +4.63. The model calculates that the component will need to move up by 0.95/day to close that "Gap". Over the past three days it has moved up at the rate of 1.05/day. The hog numbers are just NOT coming in at the level projected by the last H&P Report.

And the weights keep dribbling lower.

The 6-day moving average carcass weight dropped to 210.99#. That is only +0.85# year/year. Packer hogs are now only +1.79# heavier than the non-packer hogs. Packer hogs dropped 1/2# yesterday and non-packer hogs were steady. Index hogs were lighter at 210.19#. Packer hogs made up 32.99% of the kill over the past 200-days but 34.03% for the past 6-days. It appears that packers are getting more and more current in their shipments during this period when they are having trouble finding hogs.

Today has not been a good day but they come around every once in a while.

Best wishes,

dhm