5/25/18 was DOWN -0.11 TO 69.41. The MMMs are now trading premium to the component by +5.79. The model calculates that it will take an average daily gain of 0.465 to close tha "Gap". It is understandable that packers were bidding down on Friday since they did not need hogs for Monday. It is not clear whether this means a trend reversal or not. My feeling is that it was just a reflection of holiday and does not tell us much about the trend of hog prices for the next couple of weeks as we move toward cash settlement for the MMMs.

The 6-day moving average carcass weight eased to 212.78#. That is +2.05# yr/yr. Packer hogs are running 2.73# heavier than the non-packer hogs and INdex hogs are lighter at 211.74#. The weight of packer hogs was mostly unchanged by the non-packer hogs dipped by -1/3#. This is that time of the year when hot weather slows the growth rate of hogs so we can expect lighter carcasses for a while.

Packer hogs made up 33.01% of the kill for the last 200-day and 34.18% for the past 6-days. Packers may be continuing to expand their share of hog production.

It looks like I may have over-stayed my welcome with some of the short MMMs.

Best wishes,

dhm