5/24/18 was up 0.15 to 69.51. The MMMs are now trading premium to the component by +4.89. The model calculates that it will take an average daily gain by the component of 0.365 per day to close that "Gap". Looking at the firm carcass weights and the numbers of hogs that seem to be available that seems to be a tall order but there will be some demand surge about the time the MMMs expire as retailers gear up for the Independence Day holiday. I am sticking with the short MMMs but my conviction is not quite as strong as it was. After all the market has already given me about what I was expecting.

The six-day moving average carcass weight was a little weak at 212.85#. That is now only +2.06# yr/yr. Index hogs were also a bit lighter at 211.89#. Packers are continuing to ship hogs heavier by 2.53#. Non-packer hogs were down by about 1/3# today.

Best wishes,

dhm