shows that packers have 39K more hogs scheduled for the next 7-days than they had on this date last week. They have 45K more scheduled than they had on this date one-year ago. That is a 1.76% increase. According to the H&P report, it should be 3% to 4% fewer. This either means that producers have more hogs than reported or else they are anxious sellers as packers hack away at their bids.

More data is needed to tell which but I have a mild hunch that producers have a few more hogs than reported. I won't bet the farm on that, though but I will cautiously probe the side.

The noon reports were not very good reports but they are the best the model has to work with. It is projecting that the Purchase Index for today will be down about $1.89 causing the component on today's kill to drop another point and a half or so. Not exactly a bull.

I still have a couple of short ZZZs.

Best wishes,

dhm