Reluctantly, DH I am on same page as you finally! I still have some longs left but have been shedding them as fast as I could. I started a short position today.

I am posting part of what I received today from an analyst & trader.

The cutout just can’t gain traction and perform meaningful appreciation. Without this, packers have little incentive to bid the cash even in the face of tightening supply. Possibly seasonal demand is just slow to arrive but we’re having serious doubts. It appears, instead, that demand is being fully saturated with available supply which of course must also take into account the supply of beef and poultry. Production of each is record large. If this is the case and labor issues are going to cause problems this fall, prices will decline, large scale losses will occur and the expansion will end. China, by the way, appears to have already entered this phase.

The technical pattern is bearish. A series of lower highs since February remains intact. This is the time of year in which such highs should be penetrated. They have not. Seasonal peaks can be expected from mid-June to mid-July. We will be hedging from here forward.

Dewey