5/22/18 was UP +0.14 AND THE model projects that the component on yesterday's kill will be up between 0.20 and +0.50. The MMMs are now trading premium to the component by +6.15. The model projects the component will need to move up an average of 0.375 per day for the next 16-days to close that "Gap". On average over the past eleven years the Index has only gained +0.04 from this date until cash settlement so it strikes me as a very tall order indeed to expect an average daily gain of 0.375 per day! "Miss Short" is still my partner for this expiration waltz and as the MMMs have bounced this morning, I fed her a little so she can keep waltzing.

It's not that I think the index is not going to climb because this is the season of lower hog kill and demand seems to be holding quite well and that my friends is a prescription for a climbing index. The rub comes from the fact that it appears today the bulls have let their enthusiasm for higher prices over power reality.

Yesterday Packers purchased 96.9% of the moving average daily purchases of total hogs and 103.2% on the index hogs.

This morning I have been able to take some profits on some long N/Q spreads that have been on my boat for so long they were getting moldy.

Best wishes,

dhm