5/17/18 was up +0.67 to 68.09. That is right in line with what the model projected. The MMMs are now trading premium to the component by 6.96. The model projects that it will take an average daily gain of +0.38 each and every day from now until 6/14/18 to close that "Gap". On average over the past eleven-years the index has gained a paltry 0.25 from this date until cash settlement. In 2012 it gained a whooping 10.06 and in 2010 it actually lost -9.33. Perhaps that is telling us that we are in for a lot of one and two Tum nights between now and cash settlement.

The six-day moving average carcass weight eased a little to 213.56#. That is +2.91# yr/Yr. Packer hogs were heavier than non-packer hogs by +3.84#. Index hogs were a bit lighter at 212.66#.

Over the past 200-days Packer hogs have made up 32.96% of the kill-mix. Over the past six-days packer hogs have made up 33.86% of the kill mix. There is the possibility that packers are remembering 2012 when they were caught short-bought for the Memorial Day holiday and they were chasing hogs like crazy. This year it appears that packers are not only finishing their hogs to a heavier weight but they have the hogs to provide a larger percentage of the kill mix. This should prevent packers from having to do what they did in 2012 when they threw their wallets on the table and told the producers to take whatever they wanted.

I have covered quite a few short MMMs this morning but I still have a boat load. Well, not reall! It just feels like a boat load for me since I usually trade the out-rights in onzies and twozies. It does feel good today to have carefully worked over the data and now have the marker validate what I was reading in the numbers. I hope some of you other patrons were able to muster the courage to get short the MMMs with me.

Best wishes,

dhm