5/16/18 was up +0.82 to 67.42. The index continues to come in a bit higher than the model is projecting. This makes me think the Memorial Day demand is very good. The MMMs are now trading premium to the component by +8.46. The model calculates that it will take an average daily gain of 0.44 for the "Gap" to be closed entirely by a surging index. On average from this date to expiration of the MMMs, over the last 11-years the index gained +0.58. In 2012 it gained 11.03 and in 2010 it lost 9.87. My bias is that once the retailers fill their cases for the Memorial Day holiday, packers my ease their bidding. Sometimes they do and sometimes they don't .

The six-day moving average carcass weight eased a little to 213.63#. That is +2.90# yr/yr. Packer hogs continue to be heavier than non-packer hogs by 3.85#. Index hogs were lighter at 212.82#.

Still short the MMMs.

Best wishes,

dhm