The CME Lean Hog Index component on the kill for -

5/10/18 was up 0.66 to 64.40. The KKKs are now trading premium to the component by 0.82. The model calculates that it will take an average daily gain of 0.58 to close that "Gap". I may have rung most of the down-side potential out of the KKKs so will now start coveing them on any dips that we get. The model has been a great tool this expiration cycle in helping me stay on the short side of the KKKs.

It looks like the "Gap" closing dance has started for the MMMs. The +13.59 premium that the MMMs carried into today appeared to be extra-ordinarily wide this close to cash settlement especially in the face of plentiful supplies of hogs, beef and broilers. Retailer already have their cases stocked for Mothers Day and I'm suspecting a good portion of the orders have already been placed for Memorial Day.. This does not strike me as a recipe for a bull run.

The six-day moving average carcass weight firmed to 214.21#. That is +2.33# year over year. Packer hogs were heavier by 4.33#. Index hogs were a bit lighter at 212.82#. Packer hogs were heavier by about 1/4# and non-packer hogs were about 1/4# lighter. Either producers are a bit behind in their shipments or packers are wanting to process heavier hogs. Either way it adds up to more pork.

Best wishes,