4/23/18 was up +0.52 and the model projects that the component on yesterday's kill will be up between +0.35 and +0.65. The spring up-trend is now underway. Yesterday the component on Friday's kll jumped -1.19 to 58.40. The KKKs settled premium to the component by +9.60. The model calculates that the component will need to gain +0.62 per day to close that "Gap". Looking at the rate hogs are coming to market, the lack of strength in the cutouts, the heavy weight of packer hogs and the large number of packer hogs, it might be a stretch for hogs to show that much strength from now until the KKKs go to cash settlement.

The six-day moving average carcass weight firmed to 215.59# yesterday. That is +1.37# yr/yr. Packer hogs were heavier than non-packer hogs by more than 3.0# and the percentage of packer hogs in the kill mix moved up to 34.04% on last week's kill. The 200-day moving average has been 32.87%.

Yesterday I covered one of the short KKKs and am short three now.

Best wishes,

dhm