The CME Lean Hog Index component on the kill for -

4/13/18 was up +0.25 to 53.65 and this repressents the other 50% of the cash settlement index. The model is showing a cash settlement index of 53.53. Based on this, it appears that I picked up four points on the JJJ pigs I rode into cash settlement plus enough additional to just about pay the commissions. The model continues to be a handy trading tool when the lean hog futures become very short term. The KKKs are now trading premium to the component by 15.23. That appears to be a mighty big premium to me. Last year from this point to cash settlement for the KKKs the index moved up 9.83. The year before it moved up 10.19. This year the meats and poultry appear to be in plentiful supply, more so than the previous two years yet the "Gap" is significantly greater. I have three short KKKs left over from three J/K spreads that were left on my boat at cash settlement for the JJJs. I think I will not get in a hurry to cover those short KKKs. There may be some down-side pressure on the KKKs. Actually there was some today; it's just that I am expecting more.

The six-day moving average carcass weight firmed to 215.33#. That is +1.61# year/year. Packer hogs are now +2.80# heavier than non-packer hogs. Index hogs were steady at 213.97#. Packer hogs were a bit heavier and non-packer hogs dipped a bit.

I keep watching the percentage of packer hogs in the kill mix. The 200-day moving average percentage has been 32.86%. For the past six-days the percentage has moved up to 33.56%. I was thinking that packers had worked their way out of a few extra hogs. Now I am wondering if they are back-logged again.

Our county seems to be well supplied with red meat and poultry at the present time.

Best wishes,


P.S.: I am wondering, did anyone else join me in getting short the JJJs to go to cash settlement??