4/11/18 was UP +0.56 and the model projected that the component would change in the range of +0.15 to -0.15. The 11:00 AM report is now out and the component moved up +0.30 to 53.06. My feeling is that this is a clear signal that the downtrend (or as ITZ would say the March washout) has now ended and we will see the component build a little until we hit the high sometime in the summer. The JJJs are now trading premium to the component by +0.76. With the downtrend most likely over, I covered the short JJJs that I was planning on taking to cash settlement.

The six-day moving average carcass weight was steady at 215.14#. That is +1.65# year/year. Index hogs were also steady at 213.94#.

The percentage packer hogs in the kill mix has been 32.83% on a 200-day moving average. For the last six-days the packers percentage has been 32.83%. It has been my feeling that packers have had a few extra hogs to get marketed. These numbers suggest that they have now worked through their mild back log and the weight differential is an indication that they are wanting to process heavier hogs.

Best wishes,

dhm