4/10/18 was down -0.29 and the model projects that the component on yesterday's kill will slip between -0.30 and -0.60. There is a fairly high probability that the component will show a little weakness for another day or so. The JJJs are now trading premium to the component by +0.56 and we see the JJJs go to cash settlement on Friday. Yesterday the component dropped 0.55 to 53.217. I just decided to probe the short side and sell a JJJs with the idea of going to cash settlement with it. The model usually does not lead me too far astray this close to cash settlement. If this rally we are seeing this morning continues, I may take a bravery pill and sell another JJJ Pig.

The 6-day moving average carcass weight slumped to 215.18#. That is -1.87# yr/yr. Index hogs were also a bit lighter at 214.19#. Packers are continuing to bring their hogs in heavier by +2.26#.

Best wishes,

dhm