4/2/18 was down -0.41 to 55.75 and the JJJs are now trading discount to the component by -3.60. If traders are correct on the direction hogs are headed, things are going to get ugly. Actually things are ugly already. The JJJs have declined 31% this year. That makes it mighty tough on producers who were not well hedged and my opinion is that hedging has not been very easy.

The six-day moving average carcass weight eased to 215.11#. That is +1.96# year over year. Packer hogs continue to be heavy. Today they were +2.92# heavier than non-packer hogs. Index hogs were a bit lighter at 214.48#. Non-packer hogs got a bit lighter today by a bit more than -1/2# while packer hogs were nearly unchanged. The percentage of packer hogs in the kill mix declined yesterday. The fact that packer hogs are still quite a bit heavier may indicate that packers still have some work to do to get current in their shipments.

The erosion in the price of the cutouts took a pause yesterday and moved up 0.54 mostly on the strength of the bellies.

I fiddled around and didn't get my homework done last night and missed shorting the JJJs on the opening. I HODLed (Hold on for Dear Life) the short JJJs that I have as well as a couple of short MMMs. As I look at the powerful down trend we are in, I just don't dare cover the few short JJJs and KKKs that I have working.

Best wishes,

dhm