The CME Lean Hog Index component on the kill for -

3/28/18 was down -0.86 to 58.63. The JJJs are now trading discount to the component by -1.85. Traders don't seem to think we have found the "Trough" in hog prices for this cycle. The Purchase Index was down -0.97 this morning so we most likely have at least two more down days in the index before a bounce might come and it could be longer than that.

The six-day moving average carcass weight firmed to 214.97# this morning. That is +1.93# yr/yr. Packer hogs were once again heavier and non-packer hogs were a bit lighter. Packer hogs are now +2.42# heavier than the non-packer hogs. It continues to appear that packers expanded production somewhat more than the non-packers and now they are sitting on an over-supply of heavies.

When the H&P report comes out, I am going to be especially interested in the 180# and up category. Pre-reports estimates have it at +2.4% to +4.3% with the average at +3.4%. My model projects it will be in the +3.8% range. If that is the case, it may keep the downward pressure on hog prices for a while and a rush to liquidate could cause a train wreck if exports shrivel up much more.

Best wishes,