The obvious is that hog futures (and cattle futures) are worried about Trump picking a trade war with China. The not so obvious is what happens next. Our approach, accumulating calls, is certainly not profitable but its performing a lot better than being long futures. Given the dynamics of a pounding strong U.S. economy and continued strong outlook for pork exports, were expecting a bottom, a major low soon. U.S. pork exports to China/Hong Kong have been in decline, down 18% last year. The growth in pork exports has been in Central America with continued strong exports to Japan, Mexico and Canada. Thus, the market is likely grossly overdoing the China fear factor.
I have not been accumulating calls! Anything would have been better than what I have been accumulating!!! I posted some time back that 2017 was the Best year I had ever had and if something doesn't change soon 2018 will be the Worst!! It would be nice if this market turned but I am thinking it will not happen in the near future.