3/5/17 was UP +0.15 to 67.61. The JJJs settled premium to the component by +0.59. This may be suggesting that traders now feel the packers will be keeping their bids fairly firm. Looking at the way bellies tumbled yesterday, traders may have to re-think that one,
The six day moving average carcass weight showed a lot of weakness dropping to 214.42#. That is quite a one-day drop on a 6-day average. It is still +2.40# year /year. Index hogs were also lighter at 214.42#. Packer hogs were lighter by nearly 1/2# and non-packer hogs dipped by about 1/4#. Packer hogs are still +0.95# heavier than the non-packer hogs. On Monday 36.3% of the hogs killed were packer hogs. That is one of the largest percentages we have seen for a while. And I am wondering, did packers run more of their hogs through their plants because they had a little trouble finding hogs or have they decided they want to get more current in their shipments because they sense there are a lot of hogs to be processed this spring? The afternoon reports yesterday seemed to suggest packers were bidding up a little and that, together with the firmness of the component on Monday's kill, has me suspecting they NEEDED to run some of their hogs to market in order to have the numbers to process that they wanted.
If the component on yesterday's kill comes in firm again, I think it will be time for me to get a bit long the JJJs or KKKs or MMMs or maybe all three.
My boat load of calendar spreads kept me mighty busy yesterday.