usually end in pain but there are time when the market screams you had better chase but the clues are hard to discern and you only have a brief window of opportunity to catch it before it runs too fast and too far, at which point the risk is too great and you have no other choice but to wait for it to come back to a lower risk level. Most of the time it seems that if I decide to chase, I shouldn't have and if I decide not to chase, I should have. With strict mechanical rules of engagement, just sticking my hand out for the pick up has a high percentage of profitable rides if I don't allow greed to short circuit the PRIME DIRECTIVE. Not a 100% trip to the bank play and I get my share gut punches with donations. Education and gain comes with a price tag. The saying "timing is everything" has been and always will be the main ingredient to successful trading and a growing bank account.

Speaking of timing---------the Dec hog chart has its own swing cycle timing pattern that has been consistently been bringing the train into a pit stop low between the 15th-24th of the month. The pit crew has it back on the nortbound track for a week maybe 2 before the corrective southbound takes it back down for the next pit stop. All markets have a strong tendency to build regularity with swing cycle lows but usually keep them very well disguised with enough irregularity to keep the picture hard to read or trust. The swing cycle lows do favor close to precise timetables but you never know if the swing cycle lows will be higher or lower than the last. When they build patterns of higher lows you have an uptrend, patterns of lower lows clues the downtrend. This known to most but the confusion starts with an undecided market that gives you neither for the sideways market. The point I'm trying to make is the state of confusion from everyone (myself included) hints to me that we may have a sideways market for the next 6 months which means a probable $10 trading range.

The major swing cycle low for Dec hogs has been like clockwork every 2 months starting in mid April low range of 86-88. Up from there into the mid June high and quick 3 day reversal for the June 18th-27th pit stop which most years would have been the beginning of the seasonal down turn for Dec hogs. Instead we witnessed a surprise $9 rally into July. The 2 month major swing cycle low came in on Aug 21st. Now 2 months later on Oct 21st the pit crew was working furiously with a low of 87.85 to get the train back on the northbound. They have between the 27th and 30th to get the train out of the pit and on the northbound breaking through the buy signal resistance at 91.40 for a 5-10 day northbound joyride keeping the swing cycles on schedule. I'm betting we see a test of 91.40 next week and if it breaks above 92.00 the launch back to 97.00 is in progress.

31% of the corn crop is the number harvested but probably close to 50% soon.