MURICO.com Forum

The CME Lean Hog Index component on the kill for -

2/13/18 was down -0.47 to 73.78. That is 50% of the cash settlement index for the GGGs. The GGGs are now trading discount to the component by -0.30. The component on today's kill needs to drop about -0.60 to close the "Gap". Not sure it will do it so I bought another pair of GGGs this morning to take to cash settlement. There won't be much there but I like the mental challenge of being able to project the cash settlement index and take it to the bank. I'm right quite a bit more often than I am wrong.

The six-day moving average carcass weight was steady this morning at 214.10#. That's +1.72# year/year. Packers are continuing to bring their hogs to market at heavier weights. I just keep watching and think it is telling us that demand is solid and packers are wanting more pork and choose to get it by finishing their hogs to heavier weights. Packer hogs were heavier than non-packer hogs this morning by 0.90#. Index hogs are a little lighter at 213.97#.

It looks like i am going to harvest a nice bit of option premium of the calls I have sold even though they are mostly in-the-money and some are quite deep in-the-money. By covering them with long futures, I controlled my risk and got the premium.

Best wishes,

dhm